Predicted Winner
Yousri Belgaroui
50%
win probability
Fight Projection
Expected Rounds3.0
KO/TKO (Home)35%
KO/TKO (Away)20%
SUB (Home)5%
SUB (Away)10%
Decision (Home)25%
Decision (Away)30%
Draw5%
Over Rounds Line52%
Under Rounds Line48%
Fighter Stats
BelgarouiGastelum
Striking
4.5Sig. Strikes / Min3.9
51%Strike Accuracy45%
3.8Absorbed / Min3.4
7.6%Aggression Index7.4%
Grappling
0.5Takedowns / 15min1.8
30%TD Accuracy42%
62%TD Defense58%
42%Control Time %58%
0.2Sub Attempts / 15min0.5
0.5%Clutch Round Win %0.5%
Fight Preview
Middleweight action delivers an explosive clash as kickboxing standout Yousri Belgaroui meets veteran pressure fighter Kelvin Gastelum.
Matchup Overview
Belgaroui utilizes long-range kickboxing and knee strikes, whereas Gastelum relies on compact boxing combinations and explosive level changes.
Style Analysis
Belgaroui commands distance with high-volume kicks, while Gastelum steps inside the pocket to land heavy hooks.
Tale of the Tape
Belgaroui possesses a significant height and reach advantage, contrasting with Gastelum's compact build.
Striking Battle
A fascinating technical puzzle where Belgaroui's range clashes directly with Gastelum's inside pocket boxing.
Grappling & Wrestling
Gastelum holds the wrestling advantage if he chooses to ground the kickboxer, while Belgaroui works hard to maintain standing range.
Recent Form
Gastelum brings deep championship-level experience, while Belgaroui enters with elite striking pedigree looking to make a statement.
Key Insights
Belgaroui must avoid letting Gastelum trap him against the cage wall.
Tactical Themes
Ring generalship and countering low kicks will dictate scoring momentum.
Stamina & Momentum
Both fighters maintain solid conditioning through high-intensity exchanges.
Finish Risk
Belgaroui presents high knee strike knockout risks, while Gastelum holds solid durability.
Data Stats
Belgaroui holds distinct physical metric advantages in reach.
Our Pick
Gastelum's well-rounded MMA experience gives him a slight edge in a three-round battle.
Final Verdict
A high-level middleweight test of contrasting martial arts disciplines.
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