A. Sabalenka vs K. Rakhimova - US Open
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Score
12Sabalenka#2▲66Rakhimova#76▼34
🏆
Winner
A. Sabalenka
Match Events
Game 19 - Aryna Sabalenka - holds to 30
Game 18 - Aryna Sabalenka - breaks to 40
Game 17 - Aryna Sabalenka - holds to 15
Game 16 - Kamilla Rakhimova - holds to 30
Game 15 - Aryna Sabalenka - holds to love
Game 14 - Kamilla Rakhimova - holds to 40
Game 13 - Aryna Sabalenka - holds to love
Game 12 - Kamilla Rakhimova - holds to 40
Game 11 - Aryna Sabalenka - holds to 40
Game 10 - Kamilla Rakhimova - holds to 40
Game 9 - Aryna Sabalenka - holds to love
Game 8 - Kamilla Rakhimova - holds to 30
Game 7 - Aryna Sabalenka - holds to 40
Game 6 - Kamilla Rakhimova - holds to 40
Game 5 - Aryna Sabalenka - holds to 15
Game 4 - Kamilla Rakhimova - holds to 30
Game 3 - Aryna Sabalenka - holds to love
Game 2 - Aryna Sabalenka - breaks to 30
Game 1 - Aryna Sabalenka - holds to 15
Live Stats
10Aces2
1Double Faults6
76Win % 1st Serve64
29Break Point Conversions0
Win Probability (Odds-Based)
Sabalenka
91%
Odds
1.05
11.00
Rakhimova
9%
Rankings
Sabalenka
#2▲
Rakhimova
#76▼
Match Statistics
SabalenkaStatRakhimova
10Aces2
1Double Faults6
76Win % 1st Serve64
29Break Point Conversions0
Match Info
Tournament
US Open
Surface
Hard
Location
New York, Usa
Tour
Grand Slam
Date
04 Sept 2026
Loading H2H
Our Predicted Winner
A. Sabalenka
Score Projection
Straight Sets
Sabalenka 82%Rakhimova 2%
Goes to 3rd Set16%
Break Points
6BP Created1
45%BP Converted %30%
Tiebreaks
0.1
Exp. Tiebreaks
Key Factors
Sabalenka's first-serve points won average is 76% this season
Rakhimova wins just 28% of first-serve return points
Sabalenka's break-point conversion rate is 45%
Low tiebreak volatility expected due to Sabalenka's dominance
Match Preview
Sabalenka will dictate play from the baseline, while Rakhimova will be forced into a defensive, counter-punching role.
Serve & Return Stats
SabalenkaRakhimova
60%1st Serve %63%
76%1st Serve Won %58%
51%2nd Serve Won %42%
86%Service Hold %54%
46%Return Win %14%
7Exp. Aces1
3Exp. Double Faults3
Player Analysis
Sabalenka boasts an elite hold rate and massive first serve. Rakhimova relies on consistency and court speed.
Recent Form
Sabalenka
W
Rakhimova
L
Head to Head
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 1-0, having won their sole previous meeting in straight sets.
Our Pick
Sabalenka is highly likely to secure a comfortable straight-sets victory, dominating both service and return games.
Tactical Breakdown
Under 18.5 total games offers the best tactical value, reflecting Sabalenka's ability to win matches quickly.
Final Verdict
Aryna Sabalenka's sheer power and relentless return pressure should prove far too much for Kamilla Rakhimova. Expect the world number one to cruise into the next round with a dominant performance.
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